THAT YEAR

I have to take thyroid supplements. My doctor raised the dosage almost 40%. I got hotflashes, weight loss, heart palpitations, mania with rage-flashes, and dropped from 8 hours' sleep to just 3-4 a night. The doctor dismissed these classic symptoms of hyperthyroidism as "subjective", and told me to go right on overdosing! I went home, cut the pills in two, and recovered...

So I no longer trust this doctor. But I'm in the Kaiser health system, and they make it hard to switch; only a few doctors are open to new patients.

THAT DAY

I search for an hour, find no one near me. Frustrating. Give up for now.

Read Scientific American. A book review mocks Avi Loeb's Extraterrestrial, on 'Oumuamua, that small, tumbling interstellar object that swung by the sun and accelerated away from it instead of slowing. The article misrepresents Loeb's argument that 'Oumuamua was a lightsail; the reviewer says that's like believing in fairies!

I've read the book. It's not perfect--mashes up two great short books into one long disorganized one. In a book only about the 'Oumuamua controversy he could have detailed others' theories and his objections more--though I admit the two leading "it's a natural object" theories are so strained they don't deserve much. I sympathize--it's tedious to wade through really inept hypotheses and point out EXACTLY how they're idiotic. But it has to be done, and brutally, to force rationalizers to consider evidence not emotion.

Half of Extraterrestrial, though, was about science's general shift from evidence-based evaluation to minimizing career risk by rejecting anything controversial a priori. I recently read Zadra & Stickgold's When Brains Dream; their chapter on apparent dream ESP concluded their sleep-researcher colleagues refuse to face the rather solid evidence it's real, just inexplicable at present. Not disagreement about how to interpret the data, just a refusal to study it. Exactly parallel with dismissing Loeb as superstitious rather than address his argument. If a theory sounds woo-woo, reject it; if data supports that theory, ignore the data too.

Bayesian analysis, the rationale for excluding unusual hypotheses, is fundamentally wrong--the value of informed opinion is way less than Bayes claimed, and in conformist times the value of pundits can drop to zero--as when it claims "your hypothesis is out of bounds, so we needn't look at the data". In my autistic view, "informed opinion" is biased by three interlinked drives that are common traits of neurotypical brains, two of them problems in any era, one manifesting in conformist eras like this:

1. Self-interest comes first, group needs second, truth third. Perverse priorities for science--but drearily consistent in the decades I've watched you all.
2. A tribal hunger to belong causes a dread of mockery, ostracism and loneliness. Hypersensitive to shunning, you follow prevailing opinion--too much.
3. A hunger for high status within that tribe. Unlike the first two, climbing tactics change with the times. In the 1960s, ambition demanded bold ideas even if speculative; but now respectability's essential, so ignore awkward facts.

THAT EVENING

TV news. Trump arrested a biologist and plans to ship her off to Russia. She's criticized Putin; if sent there, he'll kill her. Trump targets the vulnerable, mainly to use them as low-cost examples aimed at third parties--his more powerful enemies--or enemies of his dear friend Putin. And so far he's getting away it.

On comes a detective show, Elsbeth. A judge framed and persecuted a woman for years. She tries to get justice, fails utterly, and at last shoots him. Elsbeth's son quits lawyer work. "The system's too corrupt; the powerful are above the law." And for once his mom is shaken. In the Trumpian Age, can she honestly say he's wrong?

Dream 1: QUIT THE MAGES' GUILD

I'm a member of a mages' professional association or guild. Yet I'm not one of them--I'm a shaman. They do spells and formulas to bind nature to their will; I dream of strange beings, and either make friends and get useful information... or don't. I can't benefit from guild classes, training or safety regs, my methods are too different--no spells to regulate.

All the Guild's political factions have agendas irrelevant to me. Recently the balance shifted from standoff to one-sided. A legal coup, really. Council meddling has gone from annoying to oppressive. Their extremism tips me over from unenthusiastic membership into resentment. Up to now, I didn't protest their regulations, just quietly ignored them. Disputing them wasn't worth the hassle.

But now...I'm ready to quit the guild. Will they try to force me to stay, to obey their rules? I'm not one of them, they've never helped me, I owe them nothing. If I have to, I'll fight for the freedom to work my own magic my own way.

DREAM NOTES

• Crooked politics, threats, coercion:
  1. 1: Trump uses immigration officers to persecute critics--of Trump, and now of Putin too. He's an open Russian tool. And still he's untouchable!
  2. 2: On Elsbeth, a crooked judge proved untouchable too. Except by bullets.
• Quit a rule-bound group: I've been trying to change doctors within the Kaiser health system. What if individuals aren't my problem, and it's policy to ignore unusual patient symptoms and complaints? It's cheaper to treat only the majority--and mistreat outliers.
• ACTION: is the dream advising me to quit Kaiser? Or... leave the USA?

Dream 2: QUIT THE SWIM TEAM

A high school swim meet. I'm in a synchronized swim team. I should have got my swimsuit on minutes ago; the rest of our team is already gathering by the pool. But I'm delayed, distracted--I didn't get a locker, and need a place to hide my gear. Find a big, well-lit but empty & unused basement. Stash my stuff there; unlikely to be stolen or even noticed.

Then I change and head out.

Is my lateness irresponsibility? Well, every swimmer has a locker assigned--except me! So I always have to find a hiding place for my stuff. Better late than robbed! If they want me to be faster, give me a locker like everyone else.

Besides, the gear I'm carrying isn't just street clothes, textbooks and wallet--all replaceable, with effort. I have a three-ring binder too--my dream-journal! Hand-written and irreplaceable. That's way more precious to me than a few dollars--or a school medal.

Wait--why am I on a synchronized swim team anyway? Anyone can wave their legs at judges. But who else can dream my dreams?

Prioritize!

DREAM NOTES

• Swim team: on The Good Place, Tahani's pretentious sister the artist and humanitarian turns out to be an Olympian athlete too.
• No locker: literal! For years I worked in a unit where everyone got a locker by our work area except me. Never got raises or bonuses; got paid less than co-workers doing the same tasks. At last I gave up trying for approval or at least acceptance; saved up and quit. Did much better boss-free.
• Need to protect my dreams: literal! Kaiser's doctor AND their endocrinologist pushed thyroxine levels that banished sleep--and dreams! When I cut the pills in half, my sleep and dreams normalized.
• ACTION: I've had trouble picking a new doctor; but maybe that's because what's wrong for me is Kaiser's policy.

What if I'd only recalled the first dream? In isolation, it could be about that mocking review in Scientific American, the TV news about Trump harassing scientists, then that mystery Elsbeth. Science is conformist now, and the rich and powerful are above the law.

The second dream, where I was at least clear what gender and species I was, could be on body issues or sexual orientation or objectification... I guess?

But comparing the dreams, the shared theme jumps out. "Organizations consistently shortchange me; I do better working on my own."

Action: I'll wait till the open-enrollment period at year's end before deciding, but if things don't improve, switch to a health plan where I choose doctors freely. I have a rare illness; Kaiser's too standardized.

America? We'll see.

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